The National Retail Federation estimates that, after a strong May, sales rose 0.07% seasonally adjusted in June, with year-over-year increases (unadjusted) at 4.2%. These figures do not include autos, gas stations or restaurants.
Among the various categories on which NRF reported, online and other non-store sales saw the highest increases — 1.3% from May to June, and 7.3% year-over-year.
“This is a healthy retail sales report and consistent with underlying economic momentum that has fueled a steady run of retail sales increases,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
The organization sees one possible cause of a break in momentum: “The big question is whether households can continue this spending pace, which is helping drive the current economic cycle. We think they can, but the big risk to the outlook is the trade war, which could raise prices while reducing consumer confidence and household buying power,” Kleinhenz said.
The NRF bases its statistics on date from the U.S. Census Bureau, which reported a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.5% from May to June, including autos, gas stations and restaurants.